ESP · sample dossier
Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp
66/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 12, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 55 days ago
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EquityEspey Mfg. & Electronics Corp · XASE
Decision context
Recommendation
Driven by superior Momentum (79/100) and Value (77/100) scores.
More going for it than against it — worth a closer look.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp designs specialized power electronics under fixed-price contracts, trading at a P/E ratio of 16.72 and EV/EBITDA of 11.83. The operational performance is highlighted by 10.9% YoY revenue growth, 57.1% YoY EPS growth, a 25.5% net margin, and an 8.0% ROA. However, capital risk is marked by an Altman Z-score of 2.51 in the grey zone, 7.9% YoY dilution, and an auditor change disclosed on 2025-10-01.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 66 · Buy
Data through
OutdatedMar 31, 2026
Momentum 79/100 — 1Y return 30%.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Severe accounting disclosures (auditor / restatement / going concern) in SEC filings
- Net margin falls below 20.4% (was 25.5%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 5.2% (was 8.0%)
These dollars come from our value estimate and help sketch entry and exit zones. They’re a guide, not a trade order.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The scoring engine's 'Buy' verdict and bull-side reliance on trailing margins overlook severe structural fragilities in Espey's reported performance.
May be overlooked
Complete absence of Debt/Equity and Free Cash Flow data conceals whether the 25.5% net margin translates into realized cash or illiquid percentage-of-completion contract receivables.
Financial data is stale by nearly six months with the latest statements dated March 2026, leaving material exposure to mid-2026 procurement cost inflation unassessed.
Auditor replacement of Freed Maxick by WithumSmith+Brown on 2025-10-01 poses unresolved governance and accounting policy risks around subjective fixed-price margin recognition.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating 57.1% YoY EPS growth as sustainable operational leverage when top-line revenue expanded by only 10.9% YoY.
Pricing the stock at a P/B of 3.2 and P/E of 16.7 despite an Altman Z-score of 2.51 indicating grey-zone distress vulnerability.
Assuming the 36.5% gross margin is defensible under fixed-price contract terms, where minor cost estimation errors rapidly wipe out operating profits.
Revenue Growth YoY falls below 10.9%.
Revenue Growth YoY falls below 10.9%.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-2.0%
3 months
+5.6%
6 months
+17.2%
1 year
+29.7%
At a Glance
This company is riding a strong uptrend at fair pricing.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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