ELV · sample dossier
Elevance Health, Inc.
53/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityElevance Health, Inc.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
62% convictionScore 53 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 9.7% above our estimate.
Current price
$428.26
Estimated value range
$243.38 – $496.59
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-9.7%
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+3.4%
3 months
+12.0%
6 months
+32.6%
1 year
+22.5%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Elevance Health, Inc. operates as a managed care organization with a market capitalization of $92.88B and a current price of $428.26, generating $28.86 in FCF per share.
- Generates robust cash flow with FCF per share of $28.86 alongside an EV/EBITDA valuation multiple of 10.40.
- Demonstrates technical momentum with a 6-month return of 32.6% while trading above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Maintains a conservative balance sheet with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.69 and Price/Book of 2.07.
- Bottom-line profitability contracted sharply, with latest quarter EPS declining -13.1% YoY alongside a modest 2.5% net margin.
- Decelerating revenue growth printed at only 1.4% YoY in the quarter reported on July 15, 2026.
- Altman Z-score of 2.86 falls in the grey zone, accompanied by a low return on assets of 3.8%.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 9.7% downsideView source
- 2P/E 19.0xView source
- 3Net margin 2.5%View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 53 · Hold
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements. The rating is capped at Hold until the statements catch up.
Factor profile
Momentum-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 35 out of 100 (Weak). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 11 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 81 out of 100 (Elite). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 65 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 84 out of 100 (Elite). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Elevance Health, Inc. story
The consensus 'Hold' verdict and technical enthusiasm surrounding ELV's 32.6% 6-month rally ignore severe operational deterioration beneath its optical valuation discount.
A razor-thin net margin of 2.5% and an ROA of 3.8% leave virtually no buffer against medical cost overruns, as already evidenced by the sharp -13.1% YoY EPS contraction. Investors justifying the 19.0 P/E and 10.4 EV/EBITDA multiples are anchoring on backward-looking fundamentals from July 15, 2026 filings that are now over 90 days stale. Furthermore, the consensus unblinkingly tolerates an unresolved data discrepancy between $28.86 and $19.86 in FCF per share while dismissing CFO Mark Kaye's net insider sale of 4,161 shares in October 2026. With top-line revenue growth stalling at just 1.4% and an Altman Z-score of 2.86 languishing in the grey zone, this price momentum represents unearned multiple expansion rather than fundamental recovery.
Unexamined downside operating leverage where a 2.5% net margin and 3.8% ROA provide zero cushion if medical loss ratios tick higher following the -13.1% YoY EPS drop.
Over-reliance on stale quarterly data reported July 15, 2026 (over 90 days past), leaving the market completely blind to late-summer utilization trends and Q3 claims volatility.
Unreconciled cash flow quality
the synthesis cites $28.86 in FCF per share while the debate claims $19.86, a 31.2% discrepancy that consensus fails to interrogate for working capital distortion.
Extrapolating a 32.6% 6-month and 22.5% 1-year price momentum run while top-line revenue growth ground to a near-halt at 1.4% YoY.
Assuming commercial rate repricing will mechanically reverse the -13.1% EPS drop within 6 to 12 months without triggering customer attrition or margin pushback.
Treating the 19.0 P/E ratio as an automatic bargain relative to UnitedHealth's 25.8 multiple, ignoring ELV's inferior 2.5% net margin and mediocre Piotroski F-score of 5/9.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 1.4%.
Debt/Equity rises above 0.69.
Cash after investing
See whether Elevance Health, Inc. still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 1.4%.
- Debt/Equity rises above 0.69.
- Net margin expands above 2.5% for two consecutive quarters
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
EPS Growth YoY (baseline: -13.1%)
Net margin contracting below the current 2.5% level.
Debt/Equity ratio expanding significantly beyond 0.69.
Further deterioration in EPS growth beyond the latest print of -13.1% YoY.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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