EGAN · sample dossier
eGain Corporation
58/100
OutdatedGenerated Aug 29, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 69 days ago
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EquityeGain Corporation
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Value (86/100) and constrained Momentum (25/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
eGain Corporation is a micro-cap software provider with a $203.13M market cap, a 73.6% gross margin, and $0.36 (vendor-reported TTM ratio) FCF per share. The company trades at an inexpensive valuation of 5.48 P/E and 12.20 EV/EBITDA alongside a 41.7% net margin and 7.1% YoY revenue growth. However, significant risk is underscored by a 6-month price decline of -22.0% and a mediocre Piotroski F-score of 4/9.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 58 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedMar 31, 2026
Value 86/100 — P/E 5.5x screens cheap vs inputs.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 33.3% (was 41.7%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 3.3% (was 5.2%)
- Debt/Equity rises above 0.03.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus view treats eGain's 5.5 P/E and 41.7% net margin as signs of an undervalued, highly profitable software provider, but this represents a classic value trap.
May be overlooked
The massive disconnect between a 41.7% net margin and a weak 5.2% ROA indicates that headline earnings power is artificially inflated and unsustainable across the asset base.
The consensus relies on stale financial data from the May 2026 10-Q filing (over 90 days old) without accounting for subsequent sequential revenue degradation beyond $22.50M.
A Piotroski F-score of 4/9 combined with an Altman Z-score of 2.51 places the firm in the financial grey zone, demonstrating deteriorating internal quality that the zero-debt balance sheet obscures.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating a 5.5 P/E as a valuation floor ignores that sequential quarterly revenue has steadily contracted from $23.51M in September 2025 to $22.50M in March 2026.
Assuming unquantified revenue lift from the May 2026 Salesforce AI Agent integration despite the lack of any realized top-line acceleration beyond 7.1% YoY.
Treating the 73.6% gross margin as an impenetrable moat while the stock remains stuck below its 200-day moving average following a -22.0% 6-month decline.
Revenue growth drops below 7.1% YoY.
Revenue growth drops below 7.1% YoY.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY revenue growth against the prior baseline of 7.1%.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+10.5%
3 months
+2.7%
6 months
-22.0%
1 year
—
At a Glance
A smaller company has mixed momentum at modest pricing.
Top Holders
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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