ECHO · sample dossier
EchoStar Corporation
42/100
AgingGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquityEchoStar Corporation · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Value (83/100) and constrained Growth (0/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
EchoStar Corporation (ECHO) is a satellite and telecommunications provider capitalized at $27.53B, trading at a trailing P/E of 3.43 and an EV/EBITDA of 11.64. The Avoid verdict aligns with severe revenue contraction of -68.8% YoY alongside negative FCF/Share of -$1.52, despite an accounting-boosted net margin of 81.3%. The principal risk is systemic financial distress, evidenced by an Altman Z-score of 0.77 firmly in the distress zone and a 6-month drawdown of -25.6%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 42 · Hold
Data through
AgingSep 30, 2026
Value 83/100 — P/E 3.4x screens cheap vs inputs.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 65.0% (was 81.3%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 1.4% (was 2.1%)
- Debt/Equity increases beyond 0.57.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Both sides of the EchoStar Corporation story, next to the Hold above
The prevailing consensus—split between a superficial value thesis and distress-driven fatalism—mischaracterizes EchoStar's post-reorganization reality.
May be overlooked
The consensus fails to evaluate whether changing spectrum impairment accounting to an individual band basis (disclosed in stale March 2026 filings) will trigger future non-cash impairment charges that degrade the 1.6 Price/Book equity cushion.
Bears attribute the -68.8% YoY top-line contraction entirely to core subscriber attrition without disaggregating the operational impact of transactions with AT&T and SpaceX.
Neither camp models the ongoing capital expenditure required to maintain wireless network buildout benchmarks post-bankruptcy emergence, which threatens to widen the -$1.52 FCF/Share deficit.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls cite an attractive 3.4 P/E ratio despite an 81.3% net margin generated by non-operating accounting gains, completely disconnected from the 2.1% ROA.
Extrapolating the trailing 1-year return of 30.8% as sustained price recovery ignores that the stock failed to maintain levels above its 200-day moving average and suffered a -25.6% 6-month drawdown.
Bulls rely on the Debt/Equity ratio of 0.6 as evidence of balance sheet health, ignoring that an Altman Z-score of 0.77 firmly places EchoStar in credit distress.
Revenue growth YoY rebounds above -68.8%.
Revenue growth YoY rebounds above -68.8%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+1.3%
3 months
+6.1%
6 months
-25.6%
1 year
+30.8%
At a Glance
A large company has mixed momentum at modest pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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