EBF · sample dossier
Ennis, Inc.
62/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 19, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 48 days ago
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EquityEnnis, Inc. · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Driven by superior Value (92/100) and Safety (86/100) scores.
More going for it than against it — worth a closer look.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Ennis, Inc. produces business forms and printed products, with shares trading at $21.32, a P/E multiple of 12.77, and an EV/EBITDA of 7.23. The buy verdict is underpinned by an unleveraged balance sheet with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.03, an Altman Z-score of 3.12, and YoY EPS growth of 2.6% on YoY revenue growth of 1.5%. The primary risk centers on top-line stagnation marked by 1.5% YoY revenue growth and a 1-month return contraction of -4.6% as of 2026-09-19.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 62 · Buy
Data through
OutdatedMay 31, 2026
Value 92/100 — P/E 12.8x screens cheap vs inputs.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Severe accounting disclosures (auditor / restatement / going concern) in SEC filings
- Net margin falls below 8.7% (was 10.8%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 5.8% (was 8.9%)
- Debt/Equity ratio exceeds 0.03.
These dollars come from our value estimate and help sketch entry and exit zones. They’re a guide, not a trade order.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus 'Buy' rating misdiagnoses a classic, secular value trap as an undervalued defensive asset.
May be overlooked
Unverified Free Cash Flow Conversion
Both the synthesis report and adversarial debate praise balance sheet health while conceding free cash flow per share is not publicly available, leaving the sustainability of distributions and capital expenditures completely unvetted.
Insider Purchase Quality Distortion
The bullish narrative highlights 8 insider buys totaling 19,514 shares on 2026-07-16, yet overlooks that the net insider transaction value was reported at exactly $0 USD, indicating stock grants or non-cash awards rather than open-market cash commitments.
Secular Printing Disruption
Consensus treats 1.5% YoY revenue growth as a temporary cyclical lull rather than acknowledging permanent secular digital substitution eroding physical business forms and print demand.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating Net Margins
Assuming steady 10.8% net margins and 8.9% ROA will persist despite sequential revenue shrinking from $100.17M (2025-11-30) to $98.61M (2026-05-31), which exposes fixed printing overhead to operating margin compression.
Overvaluing Lack of Leverage
Treating a 0.03 Debt/Equity ratio and a 3.12 Altman Z-score as catalysts for capital appreciation rather than mere shields against near-term liquidation.
Ignoring Growth Score Deterioration
Dismissing an abysmal Growth factor score of 24.1 out of 100 alongside anemic 2.6% YoY EPS growth while awarding a composite 62/100 Buy rating.
Revenue growth YoY falls below 1.5%.
Revenue growth YoY falls below 1.5%.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-4.6%
3 months
+4.9%
6 months
+4.3%
1 year
+17.6%
At a Glance
This company has mixed momentum at modest pricing.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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