DPZ · sample dossier
Domino's Pizza Inc.
54/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityDomino's Pizza Inc.XNAS
Decision context
AVOID
62% convictionScore 54 · Avoid
Downsides look heavier than upsides — we wouldn’t start a new position.
The stock trades 40.7% below our estimate.
Current price
$309.36
Estimated value range
$386.06 – $473.00
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+40.7%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The discount is real, and the rating still follows the factor score on this report.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-2.5%
3 months
-0.2%
6 months
-15.5%
1 year
-25.2%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Domino's Pizza Inc. is a global franchised quick-service restaurant operator with a market capitalization of $10.23B, trading at an EV/EBITDA of 14.84 and a P/E of 17.54.
- Strong cash conversion generates $19.61 in free cash flow per share, supporting capital returns and an ROA of 33.9%.
- The company holds a perfect Piotroski F-score of 9/9, confirming high operational quality and balance sheet strength.
- CEO Joseph Hugh Jordan demonstrated insider alignment by purchasing 10,170 shares on 2026-10-01.
- A Beneish M-score of 0.00 signals potential earnings manipulation risk, questioning reported earnings quality.
- Severe negative momentum is evident with a 1-year return of -25.2% and share price beneath 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Top-line revenue expansion for the quarter ended June 14, 2026 was limited to 4.3% YoY.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 17.5xView source
- 2Beneish M-score: possible earnings manipulationView source
- 3A Beneish M-score of 0.00 signals potential earnings manipulation risk, questioning reported earnings quality.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Financially conservative
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 76 out of 100 (Strong). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 31 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 64 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 78 out of 100 (Strong). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 5 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
What the optimistic case might still be missing about Domino's Pizza Inc.
The consensus Avoid verdict and bear debate victory rest heavily on an unverified forensic flag and mechanical momentum extrapolation.
A Beneish M-score recorded at exactly 0.00 directly clashes with a flawless Piotroski F-score of 9/9, pointing to an artifact of missing model inputs rather than genuine accounting manipulation. Furthermore, the consensus mistake of labeling missing Debt/Equity and Price/Book ratios as hidden balance sheet risk ignores the standard capital structure of asset-light franchisors operating with negative book equity from prior share repurchases. While the bear case obsesses over a trailing 1-year price decline of -25.2%, it overlooks that valuation has compressed to a P/E of 17.5 and EV/EBITDA of 14.8 against an exceptional ROA of 33.9%. Substantial insider buying—specifically CEO Joseph Hugh Jordan acquiring 10,170 shares on 2026-10-01—directly refutes institutional distress assumptions. Fading the bear consensus is warranted because the prevailing case relies on computational anomalies rather than operational decay.
The consensus treats N/A Debt/Equity and Price/Book figures as undisclosed leverage risk rather than recognizing negative equity resulting from historical share repurchases.
The bear case anchors on a Beneish M-score of 0.00 denoting manipulation while completely ignoring the operational validity signaled by a perfect Piotroski F-score of 9/9.
Consensus analysis neglects that free cash flow per share of $19.61 and ROA of 33.9% provide strong debt-service insulation even with an Altman Z-score in the grey zone at 2.86.
The bull case uncritically benchmarks DPZ at a 17.5 P/E against Wingstop at 29.0 P/E without acknowledging DPZ's muted top-line growth of 4.3% YoY for the quarter ended June 14, 2026.
Consensus models assume net margin will stabilize at 11.9% via franchise fee collections despite gross margin remaining restricted at 28.7%.
Bulls rely on trailing free cash flow per share metrics ($16.07 to $19.61) without addressing sustained technical degradation below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Revenue Growth YoY exceeds the latest reported rate of 4.3%.
EPS Growth YoY accelerates beyond the latest quarter print of 6.8%.
Cash after investing
See whether Domino's Pizza Inc. still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue Growth YoY exceeds the latest reported rate of 4.3%.
- EPS Growth YoY accelerates beyond the latest quarter print of 6.8%.
- Net margin expands above the current TTM level of 11.9%.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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