CSCO · sample dossier
Cisco Systems, Inc. Common Stock (DE)
56/100
AgingGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquityCisco Systems, Inc. Common Stock (DE) · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Growth (74/100) and constrained Momentum (34/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Cisco Systems, Inc. delivers digital and AI networking infrastructure, generating $3.20 in free cash flow per share alongside a 21.0% net margin. A neutral posture is appropriate as recent operating acceleration, including latest-quarter revenue growth of 17.6% and EPS growth of 36.6%, is tempered by a full valuation at 28.18 P/E and 20.67 EV/EBITDA. Acute price deterioration is the primary risk, highlighted by a 3-month return of -23.4% with the stock trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 56 · Hold
Data through
AgingJul 31, 2026
Composite 56/100 — no single factor above 75 dominates.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 16.8% (was 21.0%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 5.2% (was 8.0%)
- Debt/Equity rises above 0.62.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Both sides of the CSCO story, next to the Hold above
Consensus errs by treating the current 'Hold' verdict as an equitable balance between short-term technical weakness and durable operational momentum.
May be overlooked
Consensus fails to explain how an 8.0% ROA can sustainably support a 7.4 Price/Book multiple without expanding financial leverage beyond the current 0.62 Debt/Equity ratio.
The trailing revenue surge of 17.6% YoY is evaluated without accounting for backlog clearing or potential enterprise demand pull-forward, which risks sharp mean-reversion in upcoming quarters.
Fundamental reliance on the August 12, 2026 Form 8-K is nearing stale status at 87 days old as of November 7, 2026, creating an information vacuum regarding real-time enterprise IT budget revisions.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating latest-quarter EPS growth of 36.6% into FY2027 while simultaneously pricing in a high-multiple baseline of 20.7 EV/EBITDA.
Assuming the 64.5% gross margin can withstand the shift toward lower-margin AI hardware architectures and higher-cost silicon component sourcing.
Treating the $3.20 per share free cash flow as deep valuation support when it yields an FCF yield under 4.5% on a $370.01B market capitalization.
Revenue growth YoY drops below 17.6%.
Revenue growth YoY drops below 17.6%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-18.3%
3 months
-23.4%
6 months
-2.8%
1 year
+30.2%
At a Glance
A very large company is in a pullback at growth-style pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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