COIN · sample dossier
Coinbase Global, Inc.
38/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 14, 2026 · 10:55 PM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityCoinbase Global, Inc.NMS
Decision context
REDUCE
22% convictionScore 38 · Reduce
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
No estimated value range on this report
Current price
$181.79
Estimated value range
—
Gap (vs price at analysis)
—
AlphaDog could not produce an estimate from comps or DCF. Analyst targets are shown separately and are not the AlphaDog estimate.
Estimated value range is unavailable for this instrument.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-5.0%
3 months
+8.7%
6 months
-1.4%
1 year
-49.1%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Coinbase Global, Inc. operates a cryptocurrency exchange platform with a market capitalization of $45.61B, trading at $181.79 as of 2026-10-14 with a gross margin of 85.8% and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 62.17.
- Cash flow generation remains positive with TTM free cash flow per share of $6.51 as of 2026-10-14.
- Gross margin reached 85.8% for the trailing twelve months ended 2026-06-30, showing underlying unit economics.
- Balance sheet leverage is modest with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.51 as of 2026-10-14.
- Profitability collapsed in the quarter ended 2026-06-30 with a -126.5% YoY EPS decline and -16.3% net margin.
- Revenue contracted 18.5% YoY in the quarter ended 2026-06-30, challenging the elevated EV/EBITDA multiple of 62.17.
- Insiders sold $17.97M across 16 sales with zero purchases in the 3 months preceding 2026-10-02.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E -45.0xView source
- 2Net margin -16.3%View source
- 3Profitability collapsed in the quarter ended 2026-06-30 with a -126.5% YoY EPS decline and -16.3% net margin.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Financially conservative
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 50 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 0 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 28 out of 100 (Weak). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 80 out of 100 (Elite). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 27 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
What the optimistic case might still be missing about Coinbase Global, Inc.
The prevailing consensus to 'Reduce' Coinbase aggressively extrapolates trailing cyclical contraction into permanent impairment, confusing accounting losses with structural insolvency.
Bears anchor on the negative net margin of -16.3% and a -18.5% year-over-year revenue decline to $1.22B, yet ignore that gross unit economics remain exceptionally robust at an 85.8% gross margin. Furthermore, consensus completely glosses over positive trailing free cash flow per share of $6.51 despite the reported -$1.36 quarterly EPS, proving the core cash engine is not broken. With a modest Debt/Equity ratio of 0.51 and an unmanipulated balance sheet verified by a Beneish M-Score of -2.47, near-term solvency risk is minimal despite the 1-year price drawdown of -49.1%. Fading the stock after price has already reclaimed its 50-day moving average with an 8.7% 3-month gain reflects rear-view-mirror consensus rather than forward-looking risk management.
The consensus fixates on the -16.3% GAAP net margin while failing to reconcile how the business generated $6.51 in free cash flow per share over the trailing twelve months.
Bears overlook that Coinbase maintains a low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.51 and an ROA of 1.1%, providing ample balance sheet runway to absorb trading volume troughs without dilutive capital raises.
The debate ignores whether institutional staking and custody revenue streams provide a floor against the -18.5% YoY contraction in trading revenues.
Bulls rely on the 8.7% 3-month momentum and MA50 breakout while ignoring that the equity remains structurally depressed below its MA200 following a -49.1% 1-year drawdown.
Bulls assume cash flow generation shields valuation, ignoring that an EV/EBITDA multiple of 62.2 leaves extreme downside risk if top-line revenue contracts beyond -18.5% YoY.
Bulls extrapolate an 85.8% gross margin as an unassailable moat while operating expenses drove a -126.5% YoY collapse in quarterly EPS to -$1.36.
Revenue growth YoY improves above -18.5%.
Net margin rises above -16.3%.
Cash after investing
See whether Coinbase Global, Inc. still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY improves above -18.5%.
- Net margin rises above -16.3%.
- Debt/Equity ratio increases above 0.51.
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue Growth YoY (current baseline: -18.5%)
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below -18.5%.
Net margin falls further below -16.3%.
Debt/Equity ratio increases above 0.51.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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