COF · sample dossier
Capital One Financial
50/100
FreshGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityCapital One FinancialXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
66% convictionScore 50 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 112.2% below our estimate.
Current price
$201.74
Estimated value range
$266.44 – $550.04
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+112.2%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The stock trades at a discount, but execution uncertainties suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-0.1%
3 months
-2.4%
6 months
-2.3%
1 year
-6.2%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Capital One Financial (COF) operates as a major consumer lender with a market capitalization of $123.76B, a share price of $201.74, and a trailing P/E of 12.96.
- Top-line revenue expansion remains strong with latest quarter YoY revenue growth reaching 26.9%.
- Cash generation is substantial, supporting operations with trailing free cash flow per share of $47.82.
- Valuation appears discounted relative to peers, trading at 1.20 Price/Book and 12.96 P/E compared to AXP's 19.0.
- Shareholder dilution expanded significantly with shares outstanding increasing +22.7% YoY over the trailing period.
- Profit efficiency across assets remains subdued, with trailing return on assets (ROA) measuring only 1.5%.
- Price momentum is negative with a 1-year return of -6.2%, trading below both MA50 and MA200.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 13.0xView source
- 2Dilution: shares outstanding +22.7% YoYView source
- 3Shareholder dilution expanded significantly with shares outstanding increasing +22.7% YoY over the trailing period.View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 50 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Factor profile
Value-sensitive setup
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 31 out of 100 (Weak). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 74 out of 100 (Strong). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 80 out of 100 (Elite). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 40 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 20 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Capital One Financial story
The consensus neutral stance assumes COF's 12.96 P/E and 1.20 P/B provide an adequate margin of safety, ignoring that common shares outstanding surged 22.7% YoY and effectively erased the economic benefit of 26.9% top-line revenue growth.
While the debate highlights an authorized $16B share repurchase program from October 2025, persistent dilution confirms equity issuance continues to overwhelm buybacks. Subdued asset quality is exposed by an ROA of just 1.5%, which leaves the 21.9% net margin highly vulnerable to incremental funding costs after the €750M 4.326% debt issuance on September 15, 2026. Crucial balance sheet leverage metrics such as Debt/Equity remain completely omitted from market data, concealing structural risk while the company trades below both its MA50 and MA200. Insiders have confirmed this deteriorating profile by executing 18 sales totaling -$8.62M against just 1 purchase over the trailing three months. This structural dilution and technical breakdown across a 1-year return of -6.2% make the consensus Hold rating overly complacent.
Total omission of Debt/Equity metrics obscures actual balance sheet leverage following the €750M 4.326% debt issuance closed on September 15, 2026.
The debate relies on a $16B share repurchase authorization without reconciling why actual shares outstanding expanded +22.7% YoY over the same period.
Subdued asset productivity shown by an ROA of only 1.5% indicates extreme balance sheet stretching to generate the headline 21.9% net margin.
Praising sequential revenue growth from $15.23B in Q1 2026 to $15.85B in Q2 2026 while ignoring that per-share value is eroded by 22.7% share dilution.
Treating a 1.20 P/B and 12.96 P/E as an undervalued discount relative to AXP at 19.0 P/E despite COF's low 1.5% ROA.
Assuming trailing FCF per share of $47.82 translates into capital returns when common equity holders suffered a -6.2% 1-year total return.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below the current 26.9% mark.
Net margin contracts below the baseline 21.9% level.
Cash after investing
Cash-flow details are thin for COF — check the Financials tab when you can.
- Revenue growth YoY decelerates below the current 26.9% mark.
- Net margin contracts below the baseline 21.9% level.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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