CNH · sample dossier
CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V.
32/100
AgingGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquityCNH INDUSTRIAL N.V. · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Growth (12/100) and Quality (24/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
CNH Industrial N.V. is a global agricultural and construction equipment manufacturer with an $18.59B market capitalization, currently trading at a P/E of 46.24 and an EV/EBITDA of 37.29. The cautious stance reflects top-line stagnation with latest quarter revenue growth of 2.0% YoY, a sharp earnings decline of -35.3% YoY, and an elevated Debt/Equity ratio of 3.35. The primary risk is balance sheet strain, indicated by an Altman Z-score of 1.70 in the distress zone alongside a compressed net margin of 1.7%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 32 · Sell
Data through
AgingJun 30, 2026
Composite 32/100 — weak across most factors.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 1.4% (was 1.7%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below -9.1% (was 0.9%)
- Debt/Equity ratio expands further above 3.35.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Sell — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
A second set of eyes on CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V.
The prevailing consensus stamps CNH with a 'Sell' verdict based on an Altman Z-score of 1.70, a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.4, and an elevated P/E of 46.2, but this mechanically penalizes a cyclical capital goods manufacturer at trough earnings.
May be overlooked
Captive finance debt distortion
The headline Debt/Equity ratio of 3.4 and Altman Z of 1.70 consolidate retail financing receivables with industrial manufacturing debt, triggering standard industrial distress formulas without accounting for matched asset backing.
Stale credit loss visibility
Disclosures date back to August 3, 2026 (over 90 days stale as of November 7, 2026), leaving both sides blind to whether the $121 million reserve increase in Brazil and the $572 million total allowance for credit losses have stabilized.
Cyclical trough multiple distortion
The elevated EV/EBITDA of 37.3 and P/E of 46.2 are byproducts of net margin compression to 1.7% rather than structural overpricing; any cyclical mean reversion in margins would drastically deflate these multiples.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating a sequential Q2 EPS bump from $0.01 to $0.11 as a sustainable operational recovery while full-year EPS remains contracted by -35.3% YoY.
Relying on trailing free cash flow per share of $0.49 as an adequate cash cushion when the credit loss allowance already expanded by $148 million to reach $572 million.
Assuming the absence of goodwill impairments through December 31, 2025 provides valuation support when price-to-book sits at 1.84 amid a sub-1% ROA (0.9%).
Revenue Growth YoY accelerates sustainably above 2.0%.
Revenue Growth YoY accelerates sustainably above 2.0%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-4.7%
3 months
+10.3%
6 months
+5.5%
1 year
+10.4%
At a Glance
A large company has mixed momentum at premium pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
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