CNC · sample dossier
Centene Corporation
53/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityCentene Corporation · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+13.3%
3 months
+9.5%
6 months
+67.8%
1 year
+94.8%
At a Glance
A large company is riding a strong uptrend at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
Centene Corporation (CNC) is a managed care enterprise with a $34.66B market cap trading at $70.17, an EV/EBITDA (TTM) multiple of 5.17, and FCF/Share (TTM) of $17.99.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 53 · Hold
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Momentum 100/100 — 1Y return 95%.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -3.4% (was -2.8%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 1.6% (was 2.5%)
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus Hold rating and DRAW debate verdict suffer from severe anchoring to stale backward-looking accounting anomalies and unchallenged cash flow metrics.
May be overlooked
The consensus treats $17.99 in TTM FCF/Share against a $70.17 price as structural operational support, ignoring that in managed care, wide divergences between FCF and a 2.5% ROA / 11.4% gross margin often stem from unpaid medical claims liabilities (IBNR) that reverse when elevated care costs are settled.
Neither side models the mechanical TTM accounting reset
once the stale Q3 2025 $6.7 billion goodwill impairment (from the October 29, 2025 8-K) rolls off in the upcoming Q3 2026 report, TTM net margin (-2.8%) and P/E (-6.7x) will snap back to positive territory, invalidating the core bear valuation screen overnight.
The synthesis report notes that Centene narrowed its Medicare Advantage footprint to combat elevated care costs, yet bulls celebrate 9.9% YoY quarterly revenue growth without assessing how footprint shrinkage will drag top-line scale in upcoming quarters.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls extrapolate a 94.8% 1Y and 13.3% 1M price return (100th percentile momentum) alongside a 5.17x EV/EBITDA multiple as proof of undervaluation relative to Elevance Health (10.1x), ignoring that a 4/9 Piotroski F-score and 11.4% gross margin justify a structural quality discount.
The bull case relies on management raising Adjusted Diluted EPS guidance to >$4.80 (from >$3.40 in the stale April 28, 2026 Q1 release), dismissing the contradiction that GAAP EPS fell 29.6% QoQ from $3.11 to $2.19 in the stale Q2 period ended June 30, 2026.
The synthesis report assumes the October 14, 2026 Gold Card administrative push will expand the 11.4% TTM gross margin over 6 to 12 months, whereas waiving prior authorizations typically accelerates medical utilization and pressures near-term care costs.
TTM net margin recovers above the -2.8% baseline while TTM gross margin expands beyond 11.4%.
TTM net margin recovers above the -2.8% baseline while TTM gross margin expands beyond 11.4%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY revenue growth relative to the 9.9% baseline and TTM gross margin stabilization above 11.4% in the Q3 2026 report.
Go deeper
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