CMCSA · sample dossier
Comcast Corp
53/100
FreshGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityComcast CorpXNAS
Decision context
AVOID
62% convictionScore 53 · Avoid
Downsides look heavier than upsides — we wouldn’t start a new position.
The stock trades 111.1% below our estimate.
Current price
$21.90
Estimated value range
$20.14 – $69.01
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+111.1%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The discount is real, and the rating still follows the factor score on this report.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-4.4%
3 months
-7.9%
6 months
-26.1%
1 year
-21.4%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Comcast Corp is a media and technology company with a market capitalization of $77.72B, trading at a trailing P/E of 7.06 and an EV/EBITDA of 4.71.
- Trailing free cash flow of $4.99 per share provides valuation support against a P/E multiple of 7.06.
- Discounted valuation is underscored by an EV/EBITDA of 4.71 and a Price/Book multiple of 0.87.
- Core operational profitability remains intact with a gross margin of 69.4% and a Piotroski F-score of 8/9.
- Altman Z-score of 1.45 flags financial distress risk compounded by a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.00.
- Latest quarter YoY EPS dropped 66.8% alongside a YoY revenue contraction of -1.2%.
- Six-month share price return suffered a -26.1% drawdown, trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 7.1xView source
- 2Debt/Equity 1.00View source
- 3Altman Z=1.45: distress zoneView source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 53 · Avoid
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Factor profile
Value-sensitive setup
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 67 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 9 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 100 out of 100 (Elite). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 69 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 4 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
What the optimistic case might still be missing about Comcast Corp
The consensus Avoid verdict relies on a superficial conflation of utility-scale balance sheet leverage with immediate insolvency risk.
The bear camp core anchor of an Altman Z-score of 1.45 is mechanically distorted by the capital intensity of cable broadband infrastructure and market price drawdown rather than imminent default. In reality, Comcast maintains core operational profitability with a 69.4% gross margin, a 9.0% net margin, and a Piotroski F-score of 8/9, while trading at a severe valuation discount of 4.71 EV/EBITDA, 0.87 P/B, and 7.1 P/E. Furthermore, the consensus fixates on an unadjusted single-quarter EPS plunge of -66.8% and a modest -1.2% YoY revenue contraction without reconciling trailing free cash flow of $4.99 per share against the $21.90 share price. Dismissing an asset yielding over 22% in free cash flow per share simply because Debt/Equity sits at 1.00 represents herd-driven capitulation at cyclical valuation lows.
The Altman Z-score of 1.45 mechanically misclassifies capital-intensive cable infrastructure, ignoring that a Piotroski F-score of 8/9 and a Beneish M-score of -2.39 show zero signs of operational or accounting distress.
The bear consensus treats a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.00 as elevated distress without reconciling recurring cash generation that delivers a 9.0% net margin and 4.3% ROA.
The consensus fails to evaluate whether the -66.8% YoY EPS drop was driven by non-cash impairments rather than structural cash erosion, given trailing FCF remained at $4.99 per share.
Bull reliance on insider cluster buying of 7,587 shares on 2026-09-30 represents an immaterial dollar commitment of under $200,000 against a $77.72B market cap.
Extrapolating trailing free cash flow of $4.99 per share into perpetuity is overly optimistic if sequential revenue contraction from $32.31B to $29.94B indicates accelerating broadband subscriber attrition.
Assuming a 7.1 P/E multiple serves as an absolute valuation floor fails to consider that the stock has already dropped 21.4% over 1 year and remains below its MA50 and MA200.
Revenue growth YoY improves above -1.2% from the latest quarter contraction.
EPS growth YoY rebounds above -66.8% alongside Altman Z-score rising above 1.45.
Cash after investing
See whether Comcast Corp still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY improves above -1.2% from the latest quarter contraction.
- EPS growth YoY rebounds above -66.8% alongside Altman Z-score rising above 1.45.
- Debt/Equity improves from 1.00 or refinancing risk falls
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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