CFG · sample dossier
Citizens Financial Group, Inc.
57/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityCitizens Financial Group, Inc.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
70% convictionScore 57 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 15.8% above our estimate.
Current price
$63.57
Estimated value range
$50.86 – $54.33
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-15.8%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-8.7%
3 months
-9.7%
6 months
-0.9%
1 year
+22.2%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. is a regional bank with a market capitalization of $26.77B, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.85 and a price-to-book multiple of 1.12.
- EPS expanded 41.3% YoY alongside 12.1% revenue growth in the latest quarter, showing operating leverage.
- Trailing twelve-month free cash flow per share reached $5.51 with an operating net margin of 26.1%.
- Shares trade at a Price/Book multiple of 1.12 following a 1-year price return of 22.2%.
- Short-term momentum has deteriorated with a 3-month return of -9.7%, trading below both MA50 and MA200.
- Asset efficiency is constrained with an ROA of 0.9% over the trailing twelve months.
- Net 3-month insider activity logged -$9.32M USD, including a $742,281 sale on 2026-09-01.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 15.8% downsideView source
- 2P/E 13.8xView source
- 3Short-term momentum has deteriorated with a 3-month return of -9.7%, trading below both MA50 and MA200.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Value-sensitive setup
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 42 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 72 out of 100 (Strong). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 80 out of 100 (Strong). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 55 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 32 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the CFG story
The prevailing consensus and judge ruling heavily overweight CFG's headline 41.3% YoY EPS expansion to $1.30, failing to recognize that trading at a 13.85 P/E represents an unearned premium over peers like TFC at 10.6 and KEY at 11.6.
Fundamental asset productivity is structurally weak, evidenced by a sub-par ROA of just 0.9% despite a reported 26.1% net margin. Furthermore, consensus completely glosses over the -$9.32M in net insider selling over the past 3 months, led by a $742,281 divestment by the Head of Consumer Banking on 2026-09-01. Market participants are treating the 12.1% revenue growth as a durable trend rather than a cyclical peak, even as price momentum deteriorates sharply with a 1-month return of -8.7% and a 3-month drop of -9.7%. This breakdown below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages suggests institutional distribution that consensus is ignoring.
Complete lack of disclosure and visibility on balance sheet leverage, with Debt/Equity reported as Not Available while ROA languishes at 0.9%.
Neglect of significant executive insider liquidation totaling -$9.32M USD across 127,412 shares over 3 months, including a $742,281 sale by the Head of Consumer Banking following Q2 earnings.
Omission of credit cycle risk and loan loss provisioning dynamics, evaluating bank profitability solely through a high 26.1% net margin without assessing asset quality or deposit costs.
Unjustified valuation premium of 13.85 P/E relative to regional bank peers TFC at 10.6 and KEY at 11.6, despite CFG's low ROA of 0.9%.
Unrealistic extrapolation of Q2 2026's 41.3% YoY EPS growth and 12.1% revenue growth as sustainable operational run-rates amid declining momentum.
Assuming Price/Book of 1.12 offers downside valuation support when the stock has already broken below both MA50 and MA200 with a -9.7% 3-month return.
Revenue growth drops below the latest quarterly print of 12.1%.
Net margin contracts below the current 26.1% level.
Cash after investing
Cash-flow details are thin for CFG — check the Financials tab when you can.
- Revenue growth drops below the latest quarterly print of 12.1%.
- Net margin contracts below the current 26.1% level.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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