CEG · sample dossier
Constellation Energy Corporation Common Stock
41/100
OutdatedGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquityConstellation Energy Corporation Common Stock · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between moderate Quality (58/100) and constrained Momentum (19/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Constellation Energy Corporation is an independent power producer with an $88.56B market cap, trading at a trailing P/E of 24.43 and an EV/EBITDA of 14.20. While revenue expanded 23.0% YoY in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, EPS contracted 46.8% YoY alongside a trailing ROA of 3.9% and Debt/Equity of 0.76. Downward momentum remains the primary headwind, demonstrated by a -31.2% 1-year return and 14.6% YoY dilution in shares outstanding.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 41 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Composite 41/100 — no single factor above 75 dominates.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 8.9% (was 11.1%)
- Debt/Equity rises above the trailing level of 0.76.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 2.5% (was 3.9%)
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Both sides of the CEG story, next to the Hold above
The prevailing Hold consensus fails to recognize that Constellation Energy remains priced as a premium growth utility at 24.4x P/E—a 45% premium to independent power peer VST at 16.8x—despite delivering an asset return of just 3.9% ROA.
May be overlooked
The entire analytical consensus relies on stale financial statements dated August 6, 2026 (93 days old), leaving the market without visibility into Q3 performance following Q2's -46.8% YoY EPS drop.
Reported net margin of 11.1% masks severe cash conversion deficits, with trailing free cash flow standing at just $0.86 per share against an $88.56B market capitalization.
Constellation's Altman Z-score of 2.38 places the company in the grey distress zone alongside a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.76, an unaddressed vulnerability as price momentum remains negative across both MA50 and MA200.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls frame a single $417,931 insider purchase by Roger Crandall as an accumulation signal, despite representing less than 0.0005% of Constellation's $88.56B equity base.
Extrapolating gross margin resilience at 22.1% ignores the immediate operational shock of revenue contracting 32.6% QoQ to $7.50B in Q2 2026.
The stock is awarded a premium trailing P/E of 24.4, exposing investors to mean-reversion risk toward direct peer VST trading at 16.8.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarter YoY rate of 23.0%.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarter YoY rate of 23.0%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-12.3%
3 months
-7.6%
6 months
-17.7%
1 year
-31.2%
At a Glance
A large company is in a pullback at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
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