CB · sample dossier
Chubb Limited
62/100
FreshGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityChubb LimitedXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
66% convictionScore 62 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 40.1% above our estimate.
Current price
$359.79
Estimated value range
$206.76 – $302.47
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-40.1%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+5.2%
3 months
+2.1%
6 months
+8.8%
1 year
+29.3%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Chubb Limited is a global property and casualty insurer with a market capitalization of $138.81B, generating a net margin of 18.1% and free cash flow per share of $39.30 (four-quarter statements).
- Chubb generates cash flow with free cash flow per share of $39.30 and an 18.1% net margin.
- Debt-to-equity stands at 0.31, supported by $172,649M in total investments as of June 30, 2026.
- Shares delivered a 29.3% 1-year return and trade above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- EPS growth contracted by -0.7% YoY in the quarter reported on 2026-07-21, indicating profitability pressure.
- P/E multiple of 12.74 trades at a premium to peers PGR (11.0), CINF (8.1), and ACGL (7.9).
- Insiders recorded net sales of -$5.00M (-14,002 shares) across the 3 months ending September 2026 with zero buys.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 40.1% downsideView source
- 2P/E 12.7xView source
- 3EPS growth contracted by -0.7% YoY in the quarter reported on 2026-07-21, indicating profitability pressure.View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 62 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Factor profile
Value-sensitive setup
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 53 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 27 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 87 out of 100 (Elite). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 75 out of 100 (Strong). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 74 out of 100 (Strong). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Chubb Limited story
Chubb's consensus 'Buy' verdict relies heavily on price momentum and trailing cash flow while ignoring a steep valuation premium over direct peers.
Chubb trades at 12.7 P/E and 10.8 EV/EBITDA compared to ACGL at 7.9 P/E and 6.3 EV/EBITDA, representing an unjustified multiple premium for slowing fundamentals. Despite 7.2% YoY revenue growth in the quarter reported on 2026-07-21, quarterly EPS contracted by -0.7% YoY, signaling that margin pressures are eroding earnings expansion. The consensus also brushes aside an ROA of just 3.4% across a massive $281.3B asset base burdened by $89.7B in unpaid losses. Furthermore, insiders sold -$5.00M in shares with zero purchases over the past quarter, demonstrating that leadership is not buying into the momentum narrative at current valuations. Paying peak sector multiples for an insurer with negative EPS growth and low asset returns creates substantial risk of multiple compression.
Unpaid loss reserves of $89,669M represent over 64% of Chubb's $138.81B market capitalization, creating massive balance sheet sensitivity to reserve adjustments that consensus ignored.
Underwriting data from the 2026-07-21 filing is 88 days old as of 2026-10-17, teetering on the 90-day staleness boundary without recent loss-ratio visibility.
Consensus glosses over the low capital efficiency of a 3.4% ROA, failing to examine how $17,452M in long-term debt and rising short-term obligations affect returns if investment yields soften.
Consensus brands a 12.74 P/E as undemanding despite representing a 61% premium over ACGL's 7.9 P/E and a 57% premium over CINF's 8.1 P/E.
Extrapolating trailing margins into the future ignores the operating decoupling where revenue grew 7.2% YoY but EPS contracted by -0.7% YoY.
The debate treats strong 1-year price momentum of 29.3% as a proxy for durable quality while insiders dumped -$5.00M in stock with zero purchases over the trailing three months.
EPS growth YoY remains at or below -0.7%.
Revenue growth YoY falls below 7.2%.
Cash after investing
See whether Chubb Limited still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- EPS growth YoY remains at or below -0.7%.
- Revenue growth YoY falls below 7.2%.
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
EPS growth YoY (currently at -0.7% as of the quarter reported on 2026-07-21).
EPS growth contracting further below the current -0.7% YoY level in consecutive quarters.
Net margin falling below the trailing 18.1% benchmark.
Debt-to-equity ratio rising above 0.31 alongside an increase in short-term debt past $663M.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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