C · sample dossier
Citigroup Inc.
60/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityCitigroup Inc.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
74% convictionThe latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades near our estimate.
Current price
$129.64
Estimated value range
$116.17 – $132.11
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-1.2%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
Valuation is aligned with fundamentals; future returns depend on operational execution.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-6.4%
3 months
-7.9%
6 months
+4.2%
1 year
+34.1%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Citigroup Inc. operates as a global diversified bank with a market capitalization of $217.46B and trades at $129.64 per share, or 1.13 times book value.
- EPS growth accelerated 60.7% year-over-year in the latest reported quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- Revenue growth expanded 14.3% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- Valuation remains modest with a price-to-book ratio of 1.13 and a P/E multiple of 14.00.
- Free cash flow per share is deeply negative at -$44.21 over the trailing twelve months.
- Return on assets is depressed at 0.7%, reflecting subdued balance-sheet efficiency across capital lines.
- Tape momentum is negative with a -7.9% return over 3 months and the price trading below MA50.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 1.2% downsideView source
- 2P/E 14.0xView source
- 3Free cash flow per share is deeply negative at -$44.21 over the trailing twelve months.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Value-sensitive setup
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 38 out of 100 (Weak). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 74 out of 100 (Strong). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 80 out of 100 (Strong). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 55 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 57 out of 100 (Neutral). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Citigroup Inc. story
The consensus 'Hold' verdict complacently treats Citigroup's 14.0 P/E multiple as modest, ignoring that peer Wells Fargo trades cheaper at 11.9 P/E while Citigroup generates an anemic 0.7% ROA and a Quality factor score of 37.8.
Consensus fixates on trailing 60.7% YoY EPS growth and $3.15 quarterly EPS, yet completely discounts severe cash absorption reflected in trailing twelve-month free cash flow per share of -$44.21. Bullish emphasis on insider buying is mathematically trivial, as $275,935 across 18 purchases represents less than 0.00013% of the bank's $217.46B market capitalization. Furthermore, the market overlooks structural balance sheet opacity given that holding company Debt/Equity leverage is completely unrecorded. With the share price breaking below its 50-day moving average following a 7.9% 3-month drawdown, paying 1.13 times book value for sub-par asset productivity leaves investors exposed to multiple contraction.
The total omission of holding-company leverage metrics, with Debt/Equity marked as unavailable, obscures balance sheet risk across Citigroup's $217.46B capitalization.
Consensus fails to examine whether trailing free cash flow per share of -$44.21 stems from surging balance-sheet loan commitments, deteriorating collateral, or working capital drain.
Neither bull nor bear scrutinized whether the 60.7% YoY EPS expansion was inflated by tax or reserve releases rather than operational pre-provision net revenue.
Framing $275,935 in net insider purchases as an actionable catalyst when it represents a negligible 0.00013% of Citigroup's $217.46B equity base.
Extrapolating 60.7% YoY EPS acceleration when sequential revenue grew merely 0.45% from $24.66B to $24.77B in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
Accepting a 1.13 Price-to-Book multiple as discounted while balance-sheet efficiency is trapped at a 0.7% ROA and a 37.8 Quality factor score.
Revenue Growth YoY falls below 14.3% in subsequent quarterly reporting.
EPS Growth YoY falls below 60.7% in subsequent quarters.
Cash after investing
Cash-flow details are thin for C — check the Financials tab when you can.
- Revenue Growth YoY falls below 14.3% in subsequent quarterly reporting.
- EPS Growth YoY falls below 60.7% in subsequent quarters.
- P/E ratio expands above peer Morgan Stanley's 15.3 multiple.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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