BXMT · sample dossier
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
32/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 19, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 48 days ago
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EquityBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW) · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Momentum (0/100) and Safety (25/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. is a commercial real estate finance REIT with a market capitalization of $2.24B and a Price/Book ratio of 0.69. The firm faces pronounced operational deterioration characterized by an EPS growth contraction of -1300.0% YoY, a depressed net margin of 3.8%, and a trailing P/E multiple of 165.88. The primary balance sheet risk stems from an elevated Debt/Equity ratio of 4.85 coupled with a 1-year share price return of -31.4%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 32 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedJun 30, 2026
Composite 32/100 — weak across most factors.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 3.1% (was 3.8%)
- Debt/Equity ratio declines below 4.85 through balance sheet deleveraging.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 0.1% (was 0.1%)
- Debt/Equity ratio escalates above 4.85.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Sell — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The prevailing consensus to Reduce BXMT capitalizes on headline panic over trailing EPS contracting to -$0.48 and a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.85, but fails to distinguish between non-cash loan loss reserves and cash liquidity destruction.
May be overlooked
Consensus focuses exclusively on GAAP EPS deterioration to -$0.48 in Q2 2026 while ignoring that free cash flow stands at $1.64 per share, sufficient to support ongoing operations without immediate asset fire sales.
The bear case treats the Debt/Equity ratio of 4.85 as an imminent solvency crisis without analyzing the collateral maturity profile or the fact that top-line revenue expanded 18.1% YoY to $158.07M.
Neither the debate judges nor the scoring engine accounted for the signaling value of $1.05M in insider cluster buying across 13 purchases between July 15 and August 4 2026, which included buys by director Henry Nassau at prices below 0.7x book value.
Expectations look stretched
The consensus report uncritically assumes that commercial loan stabilization will automatically expand net interest margins over the next 6-12 months despite ROA currently standing at an anemic 0.1%.
The bull case relies on 18.1% YoY top-line revenue growth as proof of portfolio health, ignoring that gross interest revenue expansion in a floating-rate environment frequently masks accumulating non-accrual loans.
The report assumes a Price/Book ratio of 0.69 provides a definitive valuation floor without stress-testing whether balance sheet impairments under a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.85 will rapidly erase stated equity.
Debt/Equity ratio declines below 4.85 through balance sheet deleveraging.
Debt/Equity ratio declines below 4.85 through balance sheet deleveraging.
Monitor These Triggers
0 Checkpoints · Next PrintNet margin against the current baseline of 3.8%.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-8.2%
3 months
-26.6%
6 months
-30.2%
1 year
-31.4%
At a Glance
A mid-sized company is in a pullback at premium pricing.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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