BMY · sample dossier
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
66/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 13 days ago
This copy is frozen (Oct 24). Sign in to run the same work — filings, valuation, bull and bear, sources — on any US stock or ETF, in about 90 seconds.
Run a fresh dossierBMY
EquityBristol-Myers Squibb Co. · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Value (75/100) and lagging Momentum (59/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) is a large-cap biopharmaceutical company with a $125.59B market capitalization at $61.48 per share, generating a 71.7% TTM gross margin and 18.9% TTM net margin. A Buy stance is supported by an 8.43x TTM EV/EBITDA and 13.54x TTM P/E alongside 5.7% YoY quarterly revenue growth, 153.1% YoY EPS growth, and $5.59 in TTM FCF/share. The primary balance-sheet risk is leverage, with TTM Debt/Equity at 2.02x and an Altman Z-score of 2.46 in the grey zone.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
The latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
Data through
OutdatedJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Value 75/100 — P/E 13.5x screens cheap vs inputs.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 15.1% (was 18.9%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 7.0% (was 10.7%)
- TTM Debt/Equity rises above 2.02x while TTM FCF/share falls below $5.59.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus Buy thesis mistakes an accounting-driven earnings rebound and a classic patent-cliff value trap for sustainable operational momentum.
May be overlooked
Diminishing R&D productivity is ignored
in the stale June 30, 2026 six-month figures (>90 days old), R&D expenses rose by $771 million ($5,608 million vs. $4,837 million) to generate just $992 million in incremental six-month revenue ($24,462 million vs. $23,470 million).
The consensus treats the 5.63x Price/Book ratio and 2.02x Debt/Equity as minor footnotes, overlooking that tangible book value is heavily compressed by historical acquisition intangibles (evidenced by $437 million in quarterly intangible amortization).
The scoring engine's 8/9 Piotroski F-score is artificially boosted by the non-operating YoY collapse in acquired IPRD (from $1,508 million to $0), masking underlying margin pressure from generic drug competition cited in 4 of 8 recent news articles.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls extrapolate a 153.1% YoY EPS surge as operational expansion, ignoring that it rests on non-repeating accounting comparisons ($1,508 million acquired IPRD dropping to $0 and $393 million lower intangible amortization in the stale Q2 2026 period) rather than the modest 5.7% YoY top-line growth.
The synthesis report assumes sustaining 5.7% YoY revenue growth will re-rate BMY's 8.43x EV/EBITDA toward Merck (14.0x) or Johnson & Johnson (19.2x), ignoring that BMY's 8.43x multiple is already strictly in line with similarly challenged peer Pfizer at 8.8x EV/EBITDA.
Management alignment does not support the deep-value bull narrative
over the 3 months ended October 24, 2026, insiders recorded 0 open-market purchases and net sales of 6,749 shares (-$437,248) even as the stock lagged with a -1.7% 3-month return.
Quarterly YoY revenue growth decelerates below the 5.7% baseline.
Quarterly YoY revenue growth decelerates below the 5.7% baseline.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintQuarterly YoY revenue growth vs. the 5.7% baseline (and TTM FCF/share vs. $5.59) to confirm commercial portfolio resilience against generic competition.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-0.0%
3 months
-1.7%
6 months
+4.7%
1 year
+38.5%
At a Glance
A large company has mixed momentum at modest pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
Run the next one yourself.
You just read a full BMY dossier — scored verdict, valuation, and both sides, with sources. Sign in to run that on a name you hold, on current filings. A free account includes 10 credits a week, 1 per fresh run.