ASTS · sample dossier
ASTS
29/100
OutdatedGenerated Aug 9, 2026 · 1:22 AM UTC · 92 days ago
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EquityPublic company
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Momentum (0/100) and Value (20/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
ASTS is a space-based cellular broadband company with a market capitalization of $27.92B, trading at $71.94 with a P/E ratio of -39.97 and Price/Book of 10.33. Although Revenue Growth YoY hit 1952.2%, the high-risk verdict reflects negative earnings with EPS Growth YoY at -230.0%, ROA at -6.3%, and Debt/Equity at 1.12. The primary operational and governance risk stems from a Beneish M-score of 7.69 signaling manipulation risk alongside +29.8% YoY share dilution.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 29 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedMar 31, 2026
Composite 29/100 — weak across most factors.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Severe accounting disclosures (auditor / restatement / going concern) in SEC filings
- Net margin falls below 0.0% (was 0.0%)
- Debt/Equity exceeds 1.12
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA drops below -6.3%
- Net Margin drops below 0.0%
- Net Margin drops below 0.0%.
Dollar levels aren’t available for this run — the view above still stands.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
What the optimistic case might still be missing about ASTS
The market's $27.92B valuation for ASTS represents an extreme disconnect from operational realities, where both bulls and bears uncritically accept 1952.2% YoY revenue growth as a proxy for business viability.
May be overlooked
Omission of the $100.0M off-balance sheet commitment due March 31, 2026, which follows a $420.0M outflow on October 31, 2025, accelerating liquidity drain.
Failure to account for the impact of continuous +29.8% YoY equity dilution on per-share intrinsic value even if top-line revenue expands.
Overlooking how a Piotroski F-score of 4/9 indicates stagnant operational efficiency alongside negative ROA of -6.3%.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating 1952.2% YoY revenue growth as scalable execution when net margin remains stagnant at 0.0%.
Treating a 44.8% gross margin as evidence of unit economics while FCF per share bleeds at -$4.73.
Valuing the company at $27.92B with an EV/EBITDA of -69.6 and Debt/Equity of 1.12 under the assumption that spectrum access will be friction-free.
Revenue Growth YoY declines below 1952.2%.
Revenue Growth YoY declines below 1952.2%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintRevenue Growth YoY ( baseline: 1952.2% ) and FCF/Share ( baseline: $-4.73 )
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-2.6%
3 months
+10.1%
6 months
-22.9%
1 year
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At a Glance
A large company is in a pullback at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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