ASO · sample dossier
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
56/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 5, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 62 days ago
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EquityAcademy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Value (96/100) and constrained Momentum (8/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. operates as a sporting goods retailer with a market capitalization of $2.79B, trading at an EV/EBITDA of 7.03 and a P/E of 7.94. Operational resilience is evidenced by YoY revenue growth of 6.7% and YoY EPS growth of 17.6%, alongside balance sheet leverage marked by a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.92. The primary vulnerability is heavy technical downside, underscored by a 6-month price return of -25.4% and an Altman Z-score of 2.79 that places the company in the grey zone.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 56 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedApr 30, 2026
Value 96/100 — P/E 7.9x screens cheap vs inputs.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 5.0% (was 6.2%)
- Debt/Equity ratio increases above 0.92.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 3.8% (was 5.9%)
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The prevailing consensus treats Academy Sports as a stable value play buffered by an apparent valuation floor at a 7.9 P/E and 7.0 EV/EBITDA, but this overlooks the fragility of its cyclical peak earnings.
May be overlooked
Operating margin vulnerability
A thin 6.2% net margin leaves negligible room for discounting, where even a 150-basis-point gross margin compression from 34.6% would decimate over 20% of net earnings.
Capital productivity drag
An ROA of 5.9% confirms sub-par reinvestment returns, meaning the 1.3 P/B multiple accurately reflects capital inefficiency rather than an overlooked bargain.
Information latency
Financials rely on April 30, 2026 quarterly results that are more than 90 days stale as of September 5, 2026, masking potential summer retail slowdowns.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating 17.6% YoY EPS growth despite trailing 6-month share returns of -25.4% showing severe institutional distribution.
Treating FCF per share of $1.42 as sustainable while trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages in an ongoing downtrend.
Assuming a Piotroski F-score of 7/9 guarantees fundamental safety while ignoring that the Altman Z-score remains in the grey zone at 2.79.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 6.7%.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 6.7%.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-5.1%
3 months
-13.2%
6 months
-25.4%
1 year
-10.2%
At a Glance
A mid-sized company is in a pullback at modest pricing.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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