ASND · sample dossier
Ascendis Pharma A/S Ordinary Share
67/100
AgingGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquityAscendis Pharma A/S Ordinary Share · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Driven by superior Growth (100/100) and Quality (84/100) scores.
More going for it than against it — worth a closer look.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Ascendis Pharma A/S is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company trading at a market capitalization of $16.90B with a trailing gross margin of 91.3% and net margin of 70.8%. Its high-margin profile is reinforced by latest quarter YoY revenue growth of 114.7% and a modest Debt/Equity ratio of 0.31 alongside trailing free cash flow per share of $4.91 (four-quarter statements). However, valuation multiple compression remains the core downside risk, evidenced by an elevated EV/EBITDA multiple of 62.65 and annual share dilution of 6.4%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 67 · Buy
Data through
AgingJun 30, 2026
Growth scores 100/100 — top-line expansion leads the profile.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 56.7% (was 70.8%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 6.2% (was 9.6%)
- Debt/Equity expands beyond the baseline level of 0.31.
These dollars come from our value estimate and help sketch entry and exit zones. They’re a guide, not a trade order.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
What could still go wrong if the ASND story is too rosy
The consensus 'Buy' verdict rests on an unsustainable extrapolation of anomalous trailing margins and backward-looking cash flow metrics that are already over 120 days stale.
May be overlooked
Consensus relies on Q2 2026 data that is over 120 days stale as of November 2026, masking any recent post-summer commercial deceleration or cost inflation.
A mediocre Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 highlights fundamental operational cracks and inconsistent cash flow momentum that the 70.8% headline net margin conceals.
The 71.0% quarter-over-quarter EPS drop from $9.75 to $2.83 indicates that trailing profitability was heavily front-loaded by non-recurring milestone or licensing events rather than baseline product sales.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating a 70.8% net margin and 91.3% gross margin as durable baselines when sustaining a $16.90B commercial-stage biopharma infrastructure typically requires heavy SG&A reinvestment.
Priced-for-perfection valuation multiples of 62.65 EV/EBITDA and 10.45 P/B provide zero cushion against any moderation from 114.7% YoY revenue growth.
Touting $4.91 in trailing FCF per share as proof of self-funding while ignoring persistent 6.4% YoY share count dilution.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarterly rate of 114.7%.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarterly rate of 114.7%.
Monitor These Triggers
2 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+15.3%
3 months
+0.5%
6 months
+7.6%
1 year
+29.9%
At a Glance
A large company is riding a strong uptrend at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
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