APOG · sample dossier
Apogee Enterprises Inc
51/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 3, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityApogee Enterprises IncXNAS
Decision context
HOLD
Analysis horizon · 80% convictionA mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 33.4% below our estimated value range midpoint.
Current price
$35.62
Estimated value range
$49.73 – $57.26
Gap (vs midpoint)
+33.4%
The stock trades at a discount, but execution uncertainties suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-6.4%
3 months
-10.5%
6 months
+6.8%
1 year
-19.1%
Executive summary & thesis
Apogee Enterprises Inc is an architectural glass and framing provider with a market capitalization of $743.22M, trading at a P/E multiple of 11.20 and EV/EBITDA of 6.13.
- An EV/EBITDA of 6.13 positions APOG in the 100th percentile of industry peers, offering deep valuation support.
- Free cash flow per share reaches $5.78 relative to a $35.62 share price, demonstrating resilient cash generation.
- Solvency remains conservative with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.56 and a safe Altman Z-score of 3.05.
- Top-line revenue contracted -1.1% YoY, indicating persistent demand headwinds across commercial architectural end markets.
- Market sentiment remains depressed, driving a -19.1% 1-year price decline and -10.5% 3-month return through 2026-10-03.
- A thin net margin of 4.9% leaves limited operational buffer against cyclical volume declines or cost inflation.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 11.2xView source
- 2Net margin 4.9%View source
- 3Top-line revenue contracted -1.1% YoY, indicating persistent demand headwinds across commercial architectural end markets.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Value-sensitive setup
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 46 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 18 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 96 out of 100 (Elite). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 72 out of 100 (Strong). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 19 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Apogee Enterprises Inc story
The consensus 'Hold' verdict dangerously underestimates operating leverage downside by framing APOG's P/E of 11.20 and EV/EBITDA of 6.13 as a safe valuation floor.
In reality, Apogee displays classic value-trap characteristics, evidenced by quarterly EPS collapsing 50.9% from $1.10 down to $0.54 alongside a 1-year price drop of -19.1%. A razor-thin net margin of 4.9% provides almost zero absorption buffer against fixed-cost deleverage if top-line contraction worsens past the current -1.1% YoY mark. Furthermore, the consensus relies on backward-looking cash flow numbers from May 2026 that are more than 120 days stale, obscuring recent deterioration in commercial construction backlogs. While bulls view the 0.56 Debt/Equity and 3.05 Altman Z-score as a bulwark, balance sheet health quickly erodes when return on assets sits at a modest 6.2% during an accelerating earnings downcycle.
Severe operational deleverage is omitted from the valuation defense: with gross margins at 23.4% and net margins at 4.9%, a modest 5% drop in architectural volume would eliminate over half of operating income.
Financial data from the period ending May 31, 2026 is more than 120 days stale as of October 2026, meaning consensus holds an unverified view through a full quarter of seasonal commercial building data.
Non-residential commercial construction cycles typically exhibit multi-year delivery lags, meaning the -1.1% top-line contraction reflects past project commitments rather than the worsening current order intake.
Extrapolating historical cash generation ($4.91 to $5.78 FCF per share) forward despite quarterly EPS dropping from $1.10 to $0.54.
Assuming APOG's P/E of 11.20 will converge toward peer UFPI's 17.6 multiple without any evidence of backlog stabilization or positive EPS growth.
Over-weighting $402k in insider purchases as a definitive turnaround catalyst when market capitalization sits at $743.22M, representing less than 0.06% of equity value.
Revenue Growth YoY drops below -1.1%.
Gross margin falls below 23.4%.
Cash after investing
See whether Apogee Enterprises Inc still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue Growth YoY drops below -1.1%.
- Gross margin falls below 23.4%.
- Debt/Equity ratio increases beyond 0.56.
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue Growth YoY (currently -1.1%)
Revenue growth YoY deteriorating below -1.1%.
Net margin falling below 4.9%.
Debt/Equity increasing above 0.56.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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