AOS · sample dossier
A.O. Smith Corporation
53/100
FreshGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityA.O. Smith Corporation · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+6.8%
3 months
-1.3%
6 months
-4.2%
1 year
-9.6%
At a Glance
A mid-sized company has mixed momentum at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
A.O.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 53 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Safety 82/100 — Debt/Equity 0.37.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 10.5% (was 13.1%)
- YoY revenue growth recovers above the -0.7% baseline while TTM gross margin holds at or above 38.6%.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 8.2% (was 12.5%)
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus Hold verdict (composite score 53/100) relies on a false equivalence between backward-looking balance sheet safety—highlighted by an Altman Z-Score of 6.89 and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9—and forward-looking earnings durability.
May be overlooked
Severe negative operating leverage is glossed over
neither side explains the cost structure mechanics whereby a nearly flat -0.7% YoY revenue decline translated into a -15.2% YoY EPS drop.
Intangible asset bloat threatens book value support
shares trade at 4.5x P/B while the stale 2026-02-10 10-K flags judgmental fair-value estimates for goodwill and indefinite-lived intangibles following the stale 2025-11-12 Leonard Valve acquisition.
Information vacuum in current trading
the consensus rests on financial data from the period ended June 30, 2026 (stale by >90 days as of 2026-10-24) and a 2026-07-30 filing, leaving Q3 margin performance completely unverified.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating stale sequential recovery
the bull case celebrates a 5.8% QoQ revenue bump to $1.00B and 7.1% QoQ EPS growth to $0.91 in stale Q2 data without proving this is anything more than standard seasonal fluctuation.
Treating trailing margins as permanent moats
bulls anchor on the 38.6% TTM gross margin, 12.5% ROA, and $4.64 FCF/share as static defenses, ignoring that trailing metrics lag the -15.2% YoY EPS contraction.
Unsubstantiated M&A catalyst assumptions
the synthesis explicitly assumes the stale 2025-11-12 Leonard Valve acquisition will reverse the -0.7% revenue contraction over the next 6 to 12 months with zero quantitative evidence of integration synergies.
YoY revenue growth recovers above the -0.7% baseline while TTM gross margin holds at or above 38.6%.
YoY revenue growth recovers above the -0.7% baseline while TTM gross margin holds at or above 38.6%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY Revenue Growth (baseline: -0.7%) and YoY EPS Growth (baseline: -15.2%) to verify whether top-line and bottom-line contraction is stabilizing.
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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