AMZN · sample dossier
Amazon.Com Inc
65/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityAmazon.Com Inc · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-0.6%
3 months
+7.2%
6 months
-6.1%
1 year
+13.8%
At a Glance
A very large company has mixed momentum at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN) is a $2.68T market cap enterprise trading at $248.00 that generates a 50.8% TTM gross margin and 17.4% TTM net margin.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
The latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Growth scores 100/100 — top-line expansion leads the profile.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 14.0% (was 17.4%)
- TTM FCF/share remains negative at or below -$0.23 while Price/Book holds at 4.85x.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 4.3% (was 6.6%)
- TTM ROA falls below 6.6% alongside TTM net margin dropping below 17.4%.
- TTM Debt/Equity rises above 0.46 while TTM FCF/share stays at or below -$0.23.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus Buy verdict on Amazon at a $2.68T market cap mistakes accounting earnings for economic cash generation.
May be overlooked
Complete lack of top-line visibility, as YoY revenue growth is Not publicly available, making it impossible to verify whether the 50.8% gross margin is driven by structural demand or temporary cost cutting.
Severe divergence between the 17.4% TTM net margin and -$0.23 TTM FCF/share, which signals that capital expenditure demands are consuming 100% of operating cash flow.
Truncated 10-K narrative disclosures and stale earnings periods (the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, and filings prior to July 26, 2026 are older than 90 days as of 2026-10-24) mask current-quarter exposure to memory chip supply volatility, tariff policies, and energy prices.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating the 242.3% YoY and 106.8% QoQ EPS growth pace ($5.75 in Q2 vs $2.78 in Q1 2026) as a sustainable baseline for multiple expansion on a $2.68T market cap.
Assuming TTM FCF/share will automatically inflect from -$0.23 into positive territory over the next 6 to 12 months without any evidence of a slowdown in capital reinvestment.
Framing the 19.95x P/E (16.60x EV/EBITDA) as an obvious valuation discount by anchoring against high-multiple retail peers WMT (43.4x P/E) and COST (48.3x P/E) while ignoring TGT (15.9x P/E, 9.7x EV/EBITDA) and Amazon's tepid 6.6% ROA.
TTM gross margin compresses below 50.8% or TTM net margin slips below 17.4%.
TTM gross margin compresses below 50.8% or TTM net margin slips below 17.4%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintTTM FCF/Share (baseline: -$0.23 as of 2026-10-24) and TTM Net Margin (baseline: 17.4%) to verify whether 242.3% YoY quarterly EPS growth converts into positive free cash flow.
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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