ALMU · sample dossier
Aeluma, Inc. Common Stock
34/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 12, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 54 days ago
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EquityAeluma, Inc. Common Stock · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Growth (7/100) and Momentum (19/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
Aeluma, Inc. is a micro-cap semiconductor developer with a market capitalization of $245.47M, trading at $13.41 with a negative EV/EBITDA multiple of -32.88.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 34 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedMar 31, 2026
Composite 34/100 — weak across most factors.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -92.4% (was -115.5%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA drops below -13.7%
- Net margin falls below -115.5%
- Debt/Equity ratio increases above 0.03.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Sell — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The unanimous bear consensus ruling ALMU an 'Avoid' fixates on -44.8% YoY dilution and negative net margins of -115.5%, ignoring that the company carries zero debt distress with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.03.
May be overlooked
The consensus conflates +44.8% YoY equity dilution with structural insolvency, ignoring that equity financing eliminated debt obligations and secured an Altman Z-score of 99.86.
The bear case relies on financial filings older than 90 days from the 2026-09-12 analysis date, extrapolating March 2026 revenue of $1.22M without visibility into subsequent burn rates.
Analysts treat corporate overhead driving the -115.5% net margin as proof of failed unit economics, disregarding the baseline viability of a 37.7% gross margin.
Expectations look stretched
The bull argument absurdly cites an inverted negative P/E of -38.3 as an 80th-percentile peer value metric rather than a marker of severe unprofitability.
Bulls extrapolate operational durability from a Piotroski F-score of 6/9 while failing to address an EPS contraction of -190.9% YoY and an ROA of -13.7%.
Bull assertions assume positive gross margin of 37.7% guarantees commercialization, ignoring sequential quarterly revenue contraction from $1.39M to $1.22M.
YoY revenue growth improves from -2.6% to positive territory.
YoY revenue growth improves from -2.6% to positive territory.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-25.7%
3 months
-46.0%
6 months
-9.3%
1 year
+1.6%
At a Glance
A smaller company is in a pullback at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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