ALGN · sample dossier
Align Technology Inc
51/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityAlign Technology Inc · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+6.1%
3 months
-8.1%
6 months
-18.5%
1 year
+14.0%
At a Glance
A large company has mixed momentum at growth-style pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
Align Technology Inc (ALGN) is a $10.98B market-cap clear aligner and digital dentistry leader trading at $154.51 with a 70.7% TTM gross margin and $8.86 TTM FCF per share [c1, c2].
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
Why this rating
Score 51 · Hold
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Composite 51/100 — no single factor above 75 dominates.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 8.0% (was 10.0%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 4.9% (was 7.6%)
- TTM Debt/Equity rises above 0.03 while YoY EPS growth remains at or below -12.2% [c2, c3].
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The prevailing Hold consensus and 51/100 composite score rely on a flawed equilibrium between an optically cheap 10.8x EV/EBITDA multiple and a 26.9x P/E ratio.
May be overlooked
The massive spread between the 10.8x EV/EBITDA multiple and the 26.9x P/E ratio is treated as a simple valuation trade-off rather than investigated as evidence of high depreciation, amortization, or stock-based compensation eating into the 10.0% net margin.
The 60.7-percentage-point gap between the 70.7% gross margin and 10.0% net margin is ignored by both advocates, hiding bloated SG&A and R&D cost structures that produced a -12.2% YoY EPS contraction despite 4.3% YoY revenue growth.
ASC 606 multi-element contract accounting flagged in the August 5, 2026 10-Q and stale February 28, 2025 10-K allows management estimates on undelivered performance obligations to flatter current 70.7% gross margins, creating unmodeled downward restatement or timing risk.
Expectations look stretched
The synthesis report assumes upcoming quarterly earnings over the next 6 to 12 months will catalyze a re-rating above 10.8x EV/EBITDA via cost-saving and pricing actions, directly contradicting Q2 2026 evidence where a 1.9% QoQ revenue increase ($1.06B) still resulted in a -3.8% QoQ EPS decline to $1.51.
Bulls extrapolate a 6.1% 1-month return and price crossing above the 50-day moving average as a durable turnaround, ignoring that shares remain below the 200-day moving average with an -18.5% 6-month drawdown and 0 open-market insider buys over the past 3 months.
Bullish reliance on stale FY2025 teen Clear Aligner volume growth of 7.8% YoY (935.8 thousand shipments) masks the destructive unit economics where overall 4.7% YoY volume growth yielded only 0.5% YoY Clear Aligner revenue growth ($3,245.4M).
YoY revenue growth accelerates above 4.3% while YoY EPS growth improves above -12.2%.
YoY revenue growth accelerates above 4.3% while YoY EPS growth improves above -12.2%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY EPS growth (currently -12.2%) alongside YoY revenue growth (currently 4.3%) and TTM gross margin (70.7%) to verify whether lower-ASP product mix pressure is stabilizing [c2, c3, c5].
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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