AEO · sample dossier
American Eagle Outfitters
55/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 5, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 62 days ago
This copy is frozen (Sep 5). Sign in to run the same work — filings, valuation, bull and bear, sources — on any US stock or ETF, in about 90 seconds.
Run a fresh dossierAEO
EquityAmerican Eagle Outfitters · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Value (93/100) and constrained Momentum (34/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
American Eagle Outfitters (MCap $2.91B) trades at an EV/EBITDA of 7.27 and a P/E ratio of 10.94. The Hold verdict fits due to moderate revenue growth YoY of 9.7% tempered by a modest net margin of 5.0% and Debt/Equity of 1.14. The single biggest risk is balance sheet leverage with Debt/Equity at 1.14 alongside a negative 1-year return of -7.5%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 55 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedApr 30, 2026
Value 93/100 — P/E 10.9x screens cheap vs inputs.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 4.0% (was 5.0%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 4.4% (was 6.8%)
- Debt/Equity exceeds 1.14.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The market consensus and debate judges are complacent in treating American Eagle Outfitters as an evenly balanced 'Hold' anchored by a cheap 10.94 P/E and 7.27 EV/EBITDA.
May be overlooked
Consensus completely relies on stale financial data older than 90 days (quarter ended 2026-04-30), creating an unmonitored window where gross margins of 38.2% may have already eroded.
The Piotroski F-score sits at a weak 4/9, signaling fundamental degradation in operating cash generation and asset turnover that the 'safe' Altman Z-score of 3.13 obscures.
Consensus emphasizes positive insider purchases while omitting that net 3-month insider activity is negative -$196,613 across -808 net shares sold.
Expectations look stretched
Treating the EV/EBITDA of 7.27 and P/E of 10.94 as absolute downside protection ignores that cyclical retail multiples compress rapidly once a 5.0% net margin turns negative.
Extrapolating 9.7% trailing revenue growth as proof of top-line durability when quarterly EPS has already compressed to $0.14.
Characterizing FCF of $0.86 per share as robust cash conversion without accounting for required debt service on a balance sheet with Debt/Equity at 1.14.
Revenue growth YoY drops below 9.7%.
Revenue growth YoY drops below 9.7%.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-1.9%
3 months
+5.8%
6 months
-5.8%
1 year
-7.5%
At a Glance
A mid-sized company has mixed momentum at modest pricing.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
Run the next one yourself.
You just read a full AEO dossier — scored verdict, valuation, and both sides, with sources. Sign in to run that on a name you hold, on current filings. A free account includes 10 credits a week, 1 per fresh run.