AlphaDog·Shared report

Research tool only. Not investment advice.

A

AMKR

Equity

Amkor Technology Inc·XNAS

Price

$42.02

Today

+0.48%

Decision

Hold

Score

59/100

Decision context

Recommendation

HOLD

62% conviction

Score 59 · Hold

A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.

The price trades below our value estimate, but Quality is still a weak spot. That keeps us at Hold for now.Upside in this note: vs price at analysis
Estimated value range

The stock trades 116.8% below our estimate.

Current price

$42.02

Estimated value range

$79.15 – $103.19

Gap vs AlphaDog estimate

+116.8%

Mid $91.12Analyst targets (not AlphaDog) · mean $76.40 · $65.00–$92.00Methods: comps

true

The stock trades at a discount, but execution uncertainties suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst.

Market context

Price

$42.02+0.48% today(+$0.20)

Price when available

Pick how far back the chart looks

Returns when this report was written (not live)

1 month

-12.8%

3 months

-33.2%

6 months

-37.9%

1 year

+33.7%

At a glance

A large company is in a pullback at fair pricing.

Company size
$10.44BLarge company
Recent trend
+33.7% over 1 yearSoft
What you pay for $1 of earnings
18.8× last year’s earningsFair

Top holders

  • Blackrock Inc.4.95% · 2026-06-30
  • Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC3.91% · 2026-06-30
  • Dimensional Fund Advisors LP3.25% · 2026-06-30
  • Vanguard Capital Management LLC2.70% · 2026-06-30
  • JPMORGAN CHASE & CO2.30% · 2026-06-30

Earnings on 2026-10-26 · 8 days away (estimated)

Financial trajectory

Interactive Financial Chart Station

Visualizing multi-period financial trajectory across 5 years

Rev (FY 2025):$6.71B+6.2% (YoY)
Net Margin (FY 2025):5.6%
Free Cash Flow (FY 2025):$191.0M-44.7% (YoY)
Net Debt / Cash:Net Debt $66.9M
Revenue Gross Profit Net Income Net Margin (%)
Fiscal year annual reporting (FY)

Executive summary & thesis

Strong growth (85.6/100), but base target implies 116.8% upside — P/E 18.8x.

View source

Things to keep in mind

  • 1P/E 18.8xView source
  • 2Net margin 7.4%View source

What to watch next

What changed recently

No material changes found in the last 30 days.

Why this rating

Score 59 · Hold

Data through

Fresh

Jun 30, 2026

Factor profile

Growth-led profile

Factor scores for AMKR
FactorScore
Quality26 out of 100 (Weak). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company.
Growth86 out of 100 (Elite). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster.
Value84 out of 100 (Elite). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price.
Safety70 out of 100 (Strong). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise.
Momentum27 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately.

26

Quality

Gross margin (TTM) 15.5% · Net margin 7.4%

86

Growth

1Y price return 33.7%

84

Value

EV/EBITDA 8.0x · P/E 18.8x

70

Safety

Debt/Equity 0.57 · Piotroski F-score 6

27

Momentum

3M return -33.2% · 1Y return 33.7%

Execution playbook
62% conviction

Hold

Operating stance

Analysis horizon

Our fair price

$91.12

If business struggles

$79.15

If things go well

$103.2

Re-evaluate if

  • Net margin falls below 6.0% (was 7.4%)

Trim / reconsider if

  • ROA falls below 3.0% (was 4.6%)
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.

Another way to look at it

A calmer look at both sides of the Amkor Technology Inc story

Signal: Strong

The debate judge's 'DRAW' ruling and the 59/100 'Hold' consensus represent a dangerous false equivalence that treats stale, backward-looking accounting multiples as equal to real-time cash burn and price collapse.

The strongest bull claim—that an 8.0x EV/EBITDA multiple places Amkor in the 100th peer percentile for value—is a classic value trap optical illusion built on stale June 2026 financial data (over 90 days old as of October 2026). In reality, an 18.8x P/E and 8.0x EV/EBITDA are entirely illusory when paired with negative free cash flow of -$1.52 per share, a razor-thin 15.5% gross margin, and a dismal 4.6% ROA. Meanwhile, the market is actively pricing in fundamental deterioration ahead of fresh filings, evidenced by the -37.9% 6-month price crater, -12.8% 1-month drop, and a complete breakdown below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Waiting for updated financial reports while cash flow is negative and Quality sits at 26.2/100 ignores that the equity market has already rendered a decisive bearish verdict.

May be overlooked

  • Capital intensity trap

    The huge divergence between an 8.0x EV/EBITDA multiple and -$1.52 trailing free cash flow per share exposes severe capital expenditure drain that prevents EBITDA from converting into shareholder cash.

  • Operating leverage fragility

    Neither side addresses how a thin 15.5% gross margin and 7.4% net margin leave virtually zero buffer against semiconductor cycle downturns or pricing pressure, which would rapidly flip the 18.8x P/E into net losses.

  • Refinancing and debt servicing risk

    A 0.6 Debt/Equity ratio (0.57 trailing) is treated as safe, ignoring that servicing debt while generating -$1.52 in free cash flow per share and a 4.6% ROA forces reliance on existing cash reserves or new borrowing.

Expectations look stretched

  • Stale multiple extrapolation

    The bull case relies on a Value score of 84/100 and an 8.00x EV/EBITDA multiple derived from stale June 2026 earnings data (older than 90 days), assuming trailing EBITDA is sustainable despite a -33.2% 3-month price drop.

  • Backward-looking return anchoring

    Touted 1-year price returns of 33.7% and a Growth score of 85.6/100 mask a violent trend reversal, where the stock has plunged -37.9% over 6 months and -12.8% over 1 month.

  • Overstated balance sheet safety

    Awarding a 70.3/100 Safety score based on a 0.57 Debt/Equity ratio is overly optimistic when paired with a 26.2/100 Quality score and -$1.52/share cash burn.

Verify before you lean in

  • Cash after investing

    See whether Amkor Technology Inc still makes cash after it spends to grow.

  • Margin path

    See whether Amkor Technology Inc gross-margin gains are showing up in overall profits.

What would ease this concern

  • Net margin expands above 7.4% for two consecutive quarters
  • Free cash flow turns consistently positive

Go deeper

For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.