CRWV
EquityCoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-39.8%
3 months
-23.4%
6 months
-50.8%
1 year
-55.4%
At a Glance
A large company is in a pullback at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) trades on XNAS at $54.23 ($30.44B market cap) with a 67.4% TTM gross margin, 20.05x TTM EV/EBITDA, and 6.05x Price/Book.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 41 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Growth scores 100/100 — top-line expansion leads the profile.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -30.5% (was -25.4%)
- TTM Debt/Equity declines below 10.27x while TTM FCF/Share improves above -$24.78.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below -10.2% (was -0.2%)
Dollar levels aren’t available for this run — the view above still stands.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The prevailing 'Avoid' verdict and victorious Bear case correctly flag balance sheet vulnerability, yet the debate suffers from a severe blind spot regarding accounting mechanics and asset obsolescence.
May be overlooked
Both sides treat the 67.4% TTM gross margin and 20.05x EV/EBITDA as clean operational metrics, ignoring that aggressive capitalization or extended depreciation timelines could be artificially inflating EBITDA—a critical omission given the -0.97 Beneish M-score flag for earnings manipulation.
The analysis relies on a truncated 10-K excerpt (Items 1 through 4 headings only) and stale pre-July 2026 earnings data (plus stale filings from 2026-06-18, 2026-05-07, and 2026-02-26), leaving potential going-concern qualifications, debt covenants, or material weaknesses completely unexamined alongside a 0.38 Altman Z-score.
The debate ignores supplier and customer concentration risks inherent in Nvidia Corp holding 47,213,353 shares (0.10%), failing to question whether CoreWeave's -$24.78 TTM FCF/share burn is structurally locked in by captive hardware purchasing requirements.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls extrapolate 112.5% YoY and 24.0% QoQ revenue growth ($2.58B in stale Q2 data) as proof of scaling, ignoring that TTM net margin sits at -25.4% and FCF/share is -$24.78, proving that growth is currently value-destructive.
The synthesis report's Bull point claims 20.05x TTM EV/EBITDA is attractive relative to NVDA (25.1x) and MSFT (20.3x), a false equivalence that equates a capital-intensive, distressed borrower (10.27x Debt/Equity, -15.0 P/E) with highly profitable, moat-protected tech giants (NVDA at 27.3x P/E, MSFT at 29.7x P/E).
Bulls cite institutional ownership by Magnetar Financial (52.1M shares) and Nvidia Corp (47.2M shares) as validation, while glossing over urgent C-suite exits: CFO Nitin Agrawal sold $578,928 on 2026-10-12 and CRO Jonathan Jones sold $1.74M across 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-13 as part of $11.64M in 3-month insider sales with 0 buys.
TTM Net Margin improves above -25.4% and TTM ROA rises above -0.2%.
TTM Net Margin improves above -25.4% and TTM ROA rises above -0.2%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintTTM Debt/Equity (10.27x baseline) and TTM FCF/Share (-$24.78 baseline) relative to YoY revenue growth (112.5% baseline).
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