TTWO
EquityTake-Two Interactive Software Inc · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Value (3/100) and Growth (24/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc is a $38.78B market cap interactive entertainment publisher trading at an EV/EBITDA of 52.05 and a P/E of -119.88, reflecting an unprofitable operating baseline. A modest latest quarter YoY revenue growth of 2.0%, paired with a negative net margin of -4.8% and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.82, underpins the cautious stance on capital deployment. The primary risk centers on valuation compression against negative returns, evidenced by a 1-year price drawdown of -17.8% alongside an ROA of -0.6%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
Why this rating
Score 34 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedSep 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Composite 34/100 — weak across most factors.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -5.8% (was -4.8%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below -10.6% (was -0.6%)
- Debt/Equity increases beyond the current 0.82 level.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Sell — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
A second set of eyes on TTWO
The prevailing consensus Sell verdict is a textbook factor-model screening trap that evaluates Take-Two through static, backward-looking metrics at the cyclical trough of a major development pipeline.
May be overlooked
Trailing GAAP distortion
Relying on an EV/EBITDA of 52.05 and net margin of -4.8% penalizes the stock for heavy capitalized R&D and pre-launch costs rather than normalized run-rate earnings power.
Near-term debt maturity coverage
Neither side evaluated that short-term debt of $629.2M leaves only $520.2M in unencumbered cash from the $1,149.4M cash pile under an elevated Debt/Equity ratio of 0.82.
Cash flow divergence from accounting loss
The consensus Sell case ignores that Take-Two generated positive trailing FCF of $1.81 per share and secured a Piotroski F-Score of 7 despite a negative ROA of -0.6%.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating sequential loss compression
The Bull argument that EPS losses narrowed 43.8% QoQ to -$0.18 relies on linear trend extrapolation while revenue simultaneously contracted 8.9% QoQ to $1.53B.
Gross margin insulation assumption
The synthesis assumes a 57.1% gross margin guarantees baseline resilience without evaluating digital platform take-rates during quarters where revenue growth is limited to 2.0% YoY.
Uncritical catalyst reliance
Assuming unannounced pipeline velocity will comfortably beat the current 2.0% YoY revenue pace ignores that further delivery delays would rapidly deplete the $1,149.4M cash reserve.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarterly YoY print of 2.0%.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarterly YoY print of 2.0%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-2.8%
3 months
-17.2%
6 months
-6.4%
1 year
-17.8%
At a Glance
A large company has mixed momentum at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
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