AMGN
EquityAmgen IncXNAS
Decision context
HOLD
58% convictionThe latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 103.8% below our estimate.
Current price
$432.49
Estimated value range
$389.24 – $1,438.91
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+103.8%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The stock trades at a discount, but execution uncertainties suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+13.9%
3 months
+18.8%
6 months
+21.7%
1 year
+45.5%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Amgen Inc (AMGN) is a $233.82B market-cap biotechnology company trading at $432.49 as of 2026-10-19 with a 71.9% TTM gross margin and 23.0% TTM net margin [c1, c2].
- Operating leverage drove 64.9% YoY EPS growth on 9.5% YoY revenue growth in the latest quarter, backed by $18.70 TTM FCF/share [c2, c3].
- Strong profitability featuring a 71.9% TTM gross margin, 23.0% TTM net margin, 8.7% TTM ROA, and a 7/9 Piotroski F-score [c2, c6].
- Discounted valuation at 26.86x TTM P/E and 16.05x EV/EBITDA versus peers ABBV (80.6x P/E, 18.5x EV/EBITDA) and VRTX (28.9x P/E, 23.7x EV/EBITDA) [c2, c7].
- Elevated leverage with a 4.90x TTM Debt/Equity ratio, 20.00x Price/Book multiple, and an Altman Z-score of 2.63 in the grey zone [c2, c6].
- Stale FY2025 10-K data (filed 2026-02-13) shows sales deductions reached 54% of gross product sales ($41,983M charged, $10,606M accrued at 2025-12-31).
- Regulatory pricing exposure from the 2025-07-31 MFN Letter, MFN Executive Order, 340B Program, and IRA detailed in stale 2026-02-13 10-K disclosures.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 26.9xView source
- 2Debt/Equity 4.90View source
- 3restatementView source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
The latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements. The rating is capped at Hold until the statements catch up.
Factor profile
Momentum-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 74 out of 100 (Strong). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 70 out of 100 (Neutral). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 38 out of 100 (Weak). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 38 out of 100 (Weak). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 88 out of 100 (Elite). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Amgen Inc story
The consensus 'Buy' verdict relies on backward-looking profitability and price momentum while severely underpricing structural balance-sheet fragility and pricing erosion.
The judge and bull case celebrate a 71.9% TTM gross margin, a 23.0% net margin, and a 45.5% 1-year price return, yet they gloss over the fact that Amgen's most recent Q2 financial period (ended 2026-06-30) is now stale (>90 days old as of 2026-10-19). Beneath the surface, stale FY2025 10-K filings (filed 2026-02-13) reveal that gross-to-net sales deductions consumed 54% of gross product sales ($41,983M charged against sales, up from 52% in FY2024), signaling deteriorating net pricing power even before full implementation of the 2025-07-31 MFN Letter, MFN Executive Order, and IRA. Furthermore, paying 26.86x P/E and 20.00x Price/Book for an 8.7% ROA business carrying a 4.90x Debt/Equity ratio and a grey-zone Altman Z-score of 2.63 leaves zero margin of safety. With insiders logging net sales of -$2.72M (-1,018 shares) over the past three months into this 45.5% rally, the risk-reward is skewed toward multiple compression.
Gross-to-net rebate inflation
Stale FY2025 10-K data (filed 2026-02-13, >90 days old) shows sales deductions reached 54% of gross product sales ($41,983M charged and $10,606M accrued at 2025-12-31, up from 52% and $8,405M at 2024-12-31), a massive structural drag on the 71.9% gross margin that was completely omitted from the adversarial debate.
Stale financial visibility
Both the synthesis and debate rely on Q2 2026 results (period ended 2026-06-30, reported 2026-08-04) which are now over 90 days old as of 2026-10-19, leaving a blind spot regarding current-quarter rebate accruals and net margin sustainability.
Distorted insider 'bullish cluster' signal
Automated tracking flags a bullish cluster (9 buys, 6 sales), obscuring that net 3-month insider activity is actually negative at -1,018 shares (-$2.72M) because 'buys' by VP Matthew C.
Extrapolating single-quarter operating leverage: The bull case highlights 64.9% YoY EPS growth on 9.5% YoY revenue growth in the stale quarter ended 2026-06-30 as recurring operating leverage, ignoring the modest 8.7% TTM ROA and rising $10,606M accrued rebate liability.
Flawed peer valuation discount narrative
Bulls claim Amgen is cheap at 26.86x P/E and 16.05x EV/EBITDA compared to ABBV (80.6x P/E, 18.5x EV/EBITDA) and VRTX (28.9x P/E, 23.7x EV/EBITDA), while downplaying that peer GILD trades at a lower 14.7x EV/EBITDA and Amgen commands an extreme 20.00x Price/Book ratio.
Momentum chasing as a fundamental thesis
The judge's ruling heavily weights the 88/100 Momentum score (driven by a 45.5% 1-year and 13.9% 1-month return) to override a dismal 37.6/100 Safety score and a 4.90x Debt/Equity ratio.
Quarterly YoY revenue growth slows below 9.5% or quarterly YoY EPS growth decelerates below 64.9%.
TTM gross margin declines below 71.9% or TTM net margin slips below 23.0%.
Cash after investing
See whether Amgen Inc still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Quarterly YoY revenue growth slows below 9.5% or quarterly YoY EPS growth decelerates below 64.9%.
- TTM gross margin declines below 71.9% or TTM net margin slips below 23.0%.
- Debt/Equity improves from 4.90 or refinancing risk falls
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Quarterly YoY revenue growth relative to the 9.5% baseline and TTM net margin relative to 23.0% to confirm gross-to-net sales deductions (54% in FY2025) remain contained [c2, c3, c8].
TTM Debt/Equity rises above 4.90x while the Altman Z-score falls below 2.63 [c2, c6].
TTM net margin compresses below 23.0% or TTM ROA falls below 8.7%.
Quarterly YoY revenue growth drops below 9.5% alongside gross-to-net sales deductions exceeding the FY2025 rate of 54% [c3, c8].
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.